Adaptive Expectation Stability Model in Controlling Inflation and Unemployment in Heaven Earth Countries
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.56910/ictmt.v1i2.174Keywords:
Inflation, Unemployment, Adaptive Expectations, Heaven EarthAbstract
Adaptive Expectation Stability Model in controlling Inflation and Unemployment in Heaven Earth Country, which functions to see the picture of Inflation and Unemployment conditions in the following year. This study aims to Analyze Gross Domestic Product, Interest Rates and Money Supply affecting Inflation and Unemployment in the short, medium and long term and Analyze the differences in Inflation and Unemployment before and during the Covid 19 pandemic in Heaven Earth Country. This type of research is quantitative analysis using secondary data in time series from 2006 to 2021 (time series) and cross-sections obtained from the World Bank and BPS. The data analysis techniques used are the VAR method and Difference Test. Analysis Results The results of the VAR analysis show that past variables (t-1, t-2) have contributed to the current variables, both for the variables themselves or for other variables. In the medium and long term. and for the results of the Difference Test there is a significant difference during and before covid 19 by the country of Heaven Earth. Suggestions in this study, To stabilize the Inflation and Unemployment rates, government policies are needed to increase interest rates which have an impact on reducing the inflation rate from this decrease in the inflation rate also has an impact on unemployment where when inflation falls, many industrial sectors need more workers to get maximum production results which of course will reduce the Unemployment rate.
References
Affandi, F. (2016). Analisis pengaruh tingkat inflasi, nilai tukar, BI-rate, dan suku bunga bank konvensional terhadap margin bagi hasil deposito muḍarabah perbankan syariah di Indonesia periode 2010-2015. AtTawassuth, 1(1), 45–72.
Ariefianto, D. (2012). Ekonometrika: Esensi dan aplikasi dengan menggunakan Eviews. Jakarta: Erlangga.
Boediono. (2001). Ekonomi moneter (3rd ed.). Yogyakarta: BPFE.
Eisenhardt, K. M., & Martin, J. A. (2000). Dynamic capabilities: What are they? Strategic Management Journal, 21, 1105–1121.
Ekah, U. J., & Iloke, J. (2022). Performance evaluation of key performance indicators for UMTS networks in Calabar, Nigeria. GSC Advanced Research and Reviews, 10(01), 047–052.
Ekananda, M. (2004). Ekonomi internasional. Jakarta: Erlangga.
Ezenwakwelu, C. A., Akpan, E. E., & Ogbogu-Asogwa, O. I. (2021). Enabling service innovation through dynamic capabilities: Insight from telecommunication firms. International Journal of Business and Management Invention, 10(5), 54–63.
Fenski, M. D. (2018). Penerapan metode autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) dalam memodelkan persentase penduduk miskin terhadap tingkat pengangguran terbuka di Provinsi Lampung periode 2011–2017. Prosiding Seminar Nasional Metode Kuantitatif, 95–104.
Ferdiansyah, F. (2011). Analisis pengaruh jumlah uang beredar (M1), suku bunga SBI, nilai tukar suku bunga deposito terhadap tingkat inflasi. Media Ekonomi, 19(3), 43–68.
Fincham, J. (2008). Response rates and responsiveness for surveys, standards, and the journal. American Journal of Pharmaceutical Education, 72(2), 1–3.
Harjanto, T. (2014). Pengangguran dan pembangunan nasional. Jurnal Ekonomi, 2(2), 67–77.
Haryanto, T. P. (2013). Pengaruh pengeluaran pemerintah terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi kabupaten/kota di Provinsi Jawa Tengah tahun 2007–2011. Economics Development Analysis Journal, 2(3), 148–158.
Indriani, D. R. (2011). Pengaruh pengeluaran konsumsi dan investasi pemerintah terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi di Indonesia. Ekono Sains, IX(2), 95–105.
Irmayanti, & Bato, A. R. (2017). Pengaruh tenaga kerja dan pengeluaran pemerintah. Jurnal Ekonomi, 4(1).
Langi, T. M., & Masinambow, V. (2014). Analisis pengaruh suku bunga BI, jumlah uang beredar, dan tingkat kurs terhadap tingkat inflasi di Indonesia. Jurnal Berkala Ilmiah Efisiensi, 14(2), 44–58.
Langi, T. M., Masinambow, V., & Siwu, H. (2014). Analisis pengaruh suku bunga BI, jumlah uang beredar, dan tingkat kurs terhadap tingkat inflasi di Indonesia. Jurnal Berkala Ilmiah Efisiensi, 14(2), 44–58.
Mahendra, A. (2016). Analisis pengaruh jumlah uang beredar, suku bunga SBI dan nilai tukar terhadap inflasi di Indonesia. JRAK, 2(1), 1–12.
Nasution, L. N., Nasution, D. P., & Lubis, A. I. F. (2020). Efektivitas kebijakan fiskal dan moneter dalam mengatasi kemiskinan di Provinsi Sumatera Utara. Jurnal Kajian Ekonomi Dan Kebijakan Publik (JEpa), 5(1), 73–77.
Novalina, R. A. (2018). Leading indicator stabilitas ekonomi di negara Civit (China, India, Vietnam, dan Indonesia), pendekatan panel ARDL. Kajian Ekonomi dan Kebijakan Publik, 4(1), 1–12.
Priatna, I. A. (2020). Analisis vector autoregression (VAR) terhadap hubungan pengangguran dan inflasi dalam perekonomian Indonesia. Vol. 7(2), 90–97.
Sari, W. I., & Daulay, M. (2017). The analysis of global economic and financial stability control using arbitrage pricing and contagion theories.
Sari, W. I., Novalina, A., & Sanny, A. (2022, December). Optimizing monetary policy transmission through the emerging market interest rate channel. In Proceeding of the International Conference on Economics and Business (Vol. 1, No. 2, pp. 523–535).
Sedyaningrum, M., & F, N. (2016). Pengaruh jumlah nilai ekspor, impor dan pertumbuhan ekonomi terhadap nilai tukar dan daya beli masyarakat di Indonesia. Vol. 34(1), 114–121.
Slamet, K. B. (2020). Pengaruh jumlah uang beredar terhadap inflasi dan suku bunga, serta terhadap investasi dan pertumbuhan ekonomi di Indonesia. Jurnal Ekonomi dan Bisnis Airlangga, 30(1), 39–48.
Sukirno, S. (2004). Pengantar teori makro ekonomi. Jakarta: PT Raja Grafindo Persada.
Suryadi. (2006). Model hubungan kausal kesadaran, pelayanan, kepatuhan wajib pajak dan pengaruhnya terhadap kinerja penerimaan pajak. Keuangan Publik, 4(1), 105–121.
Susanto, E. R. (2017). Pengaruh inflasi dan pendidikan terhadap pengangguran dan kemiskinan. Inovasi, 13(1), 19–27.
Tamunan, T. T. (2001). Perekonomian Indonesia: Teori dan temuan empiris. Jakarta: Ghalia Indonesia.
Wahab, S. S. (2015). Pengaruh upah dan pertumbuhan penduduk terhadap tingkat pengangguran di Kota Makassar. Iqtisaduna, 1(1), 35–54.
Wilis, R. (2015). Analisis pengaruh upah minimum, investasi, dan pengeluaran pemerintah terhadap penyerapan tenaga kerja berdasarkan pendidikan. El-Dinar, 3(1), 12–26.
Downloads
Published
How to Cite
Issue
Section
License
Copyright (c) 2023 International Conference On Digital Advanced Tourism Management And Technology
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.
